The County Press

YTD soybean exports down 31 percent compared to last year




WASHINGTON, D.C. — If market prices haven’t already convinced you of the heavy toll China trade disputes has inflicted on soybean export volumes, the USDA’s March 25 Federal Grain Inspection Service report should remove any clouds of doubt.

The report revealed yearto date soybean export inspections managed to reach 1.1 billion bushels, down 31 percent from this time last year. A majority of the yearover year decrease in soybean exports falls squarely on China with soybean export inspections down 82 percent. With 175 million bushels exported so far, soybean exports to China are down 779 million bushels from last year.

While soybean export inspections remain down from prior year levels, corn export inspections totaled 1.1 billion bushels, up 205 million bushels, or 22 percent, from prior-year levels.

Pace of Soybean Exports

Through the week ending March 21, soybean export inspections, at 1.1 billion bushels, are down 463 million bushels, or 31 percent, from prior-year levels. Weekly soybean exports have remained steady over the past four weeks, adding around 31 million bushels to the export totals for marketing year 2018/19.

Historically, at this point in the marketing year, weekly soybean export inspections are beginning to decline, with 26 million to 27 million bushels exported for the 29th week of the marketing year in 2016- 17 and 2017-18.

However, with 24 more weeks left in the 2018-19 marketing year, soybean exporters will need to continue shipping higher volumes each week to get close to historical levels as well as USDA’s projections for 1.875 billion bushels.

Overall soybean exports remain down 824 million bushels from USDA’s projection of 1.875 billion bushels exported this marketing year. With 24 weeks left in the marketing year, weekly soybean exports will need to reach an average of 34 million bushels per week to reach USDA’s projection.

Most soybeans come down from the Midwest, making the Mississippi River port the largest export hub for U.S. soybeans, with 680 million bushels shipped out so far in marketing year 2018-19. The current export pace from the Mississippi River represents a 23 percent decline from last year’s 887 million bushels exported for the first 29 weeks of the marketing year.

Soybean export inspections from the Columbia River port and Puget Sound represent the largest decline from last year, with a 56 percent and 60 percent decline, respectively.

The only major U.S. soybean exporting port with a small increase from last year at this point in the marketing year is the Interior port,whichhada3percent increase. Figure 2 outlines the cumulative soybean exports inspections from the top five export ports for the first 29 weeks of the marketing year.

Pace of Corn Exports

USDA’s most recent FGIS report revealed corn export inspections at 1.1 billion bushels through the week ending March 21, representing a 22 percent increase from this time last year. As opposed to a historically slower export pace for soybeans at this point in the marketing year, corn export inspections tend to be at their highest levels. However, they have remained relatively steady, holding at an average pace of 34 million bushels per week for the last four weeks.

Total corn export inspections through the first 29 weeks of the marketing year are trailing by 1.3 billion bushels from USDA’s projection of 2.375 billion bushels for marketing year 2018-19. In order for corn exports to reach USDA’s projection, weekly corn export inspections will need to average 52 million bushels per week.